The mouth-watering Champions League semi finals are on the horizon and it is a time to follow your instinct in the tournament markets.

The four teams appear so closely-matched - reflected in a winner's market that sees the contenders currently bunched between 2.76 and 4.9 - and the five remaining fixtures will surely be extremely tight affairs.

The seemingly annual Chelsea-Liverpool showdown is a case in point. Their six recent Champions League encounters have produced three goalless draws and three one-goal victories, of which the Reds have claimed two.

My gut feeling tells me to go with the Blues, in both this clash and the final. There is such a fine line between success and failure at this stage; we could so easily be looking forward to another Arsenal-Chelsea battle.

This is the round that Rafa's European Midas touch will go missing and, as I suggested below in relation to the Premier League run-in, Manchester United are also in danger of running out of steam.

It is a bad time to hit a sticky patch and the Red Devils are are certainly less convincing than they were a month ago. However, the same is true of Barcelona, who have all but surrendered the La Liga title race with a run of one league win in eight.

United will just edge the second semi final to finally set up the all-English final that has seemed so likely in recent years.

I am convinced the much-maligned Avram Grant will have some silverware to show for his troubled first season efforts, although he is probably under most pressure to deliver the goods in this pressure-cooker of a competition.

As a Spurs fan thankful for the Blues' non-performance in the Carling Cup final, I reckon Chelsea will be in the perfect frame of mind to banish that memory in the biggest showdown of the season.